by WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation forecasted holiday sales from November through December will increase between 3.6% and 5.2% over last year to the $755.3 billion to $766.7 billion range.
The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants and compares to a 4% percent increase in 2019 (when NRF forecasted a 3.8% to 4.2% gain) and an average holiday sales increase of 3.5% over the past five years.
The forecast doesn’t break out furniture industry specifics. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, will increase between 20% and 30% to $202.5 to $218.4 billion., the group said.
“We know this holiday season will be unlike any other, and retailers have planned ahead by investing billions of dollars to ensure the health and safety of their employees and customers,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release.
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“Consumers have shown they are excited about the holidays and are willing to spend on gifts that lift the spirits of family and friends after such a challenging year. We expect a strong finish to the holiday season and will continue to work with municipal and state officials to keep retailers open and the economy moving forward at this critical time.”
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz added that despite the difficult year for consumers, they “will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago.
“After all they’ve been through, we think there’s going to be a psychological factor that they owe it to themselves and their families to have a better-than-normal holiday,” he said.
Kleinhenz and NRF pointed to consumers’ “strong balance sheets supported by a strong stock market, rising home values and record savings boosted by government stimulus payments issued earlier this year.
Many households, NRF said, are expected to shop online for the holidays as they have for much of their everyday spending this year. That includes shopping on the websites of brick-and-mortar retailers.
The NRF said its forecast is based on an economic model that takes into consideration a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather.
NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, and said its numbers may differ from other organizations that define the period and the categories included differently.
For an alternative take on NRF’s forecast and track record, see this piece from wealth manager and blogger Barry Ritholtz, who has tracked NRF’s holiday calls for going on 16 years. Ritholtz gave kudos to the association for last year’s call but remains a critic of its methodology.
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